We are excited to announce PancakeSwap’s Prediction Market on Arbitrum, featuring an AI-driven price feed powered by Allora! Following the success of our Swap, Yield Farming, Syrup Pools, Perpetuals, and Options Trading features, this expansion signifies our commitment to delivering a wide array of functionalities to our diverse user base on Arbitrum. To mark this occasion, we’re launching a 9-week campaign with a total reward pool of 60,000 ARB. Read on to learn more about this campaign.
What is PancakeSwap Prediction, and How Does it Work?
PancakeSwap's Prediction Market allows users to forecast the price movements of tokens such as ETH every 10 minutes with opportunities to earn a share of the round’s prize pool.
How to use AI-powered Prediction:
1. Go to PancakeSwap Prediction and select the Arbitrum Chain.
2. Select the prediction round you want to participate in and make your prediction based on either the AI's forecast or going against it.
- On the interface, you can align with the AI's forecast by selecting "Follow" or go "Against" the AI by not following it. Please note that you will only see whether the AI predicts the price to rise or fall after placing your bet. Both "Follow" and "Against" bets will be placed by users, meaning the AI will not predict against any user. Instead, users choose to either trust the AI or go against it based on their judgment.
- Example: Let's say the current ETH price is $3,500. If the AI forecast predicts the ETH price will rise/fall in the next 10 minutes, and you want to follow the AI's prediction, select "Follow" to align with the AI's prediction. On the other hand, if you think the AI may be wrong, click "Against" to go against the AI's prediction. Please note that you can only see whether AI is betting up or down after you place the bet!
Disclaimer and Risk Warning: The AI prediction is powered by Allora, and after initial testing, the accuracy is 65%. This means the AI can predict correctly or incorrectly, users should exercise caution and make informed decisions when choosing to follow or go against the AI's predictions.. This content is for general information and educational purposes only, without representation or warranty. It should not be construed as financial, legal, or other professional advice, nor intended to recommend purchasing any specific product or service. You should seek advice from appropriate professional advisors.
3. Place your prediction by entering the amount you wish to predict (minimum is 0.00001 ETH), confirming your transaction, and signing it in your wallet.
4. Wait for the Round to Close: Watch the result after 10 minutes.
For example, if the current ETH price was $3,500 and you followed the AI prediction that it would rise in the next 10 minutes, and the price increases to $3,505, your prediction was correct, and you win a share of the round's prize pool. Conversely, if the price falls to $3,498, you would lose for making the wrong prediction.
5. Collect Your Winnings: If your prediction is correct once the round ends, collect your winnings! You can also view the history of previous rounds in the "history section".
Please note that the payout multiplier for each round will vary based on the bets placed by users on each side.
Supported Tokens for Launch: ETH
Fees: 3% of each round's total pot to the treasury, with a portion of the fees used for buyback and burn. The remaining fees will be used in the treasury for future marketing and development.
Join the Campaign and Win from a 60,000 ARB Reward Pool!
To celebrate this launch, we're running a 9-week campaign with 60,000 ARB rewards. This initiative is part of PancakeSwap’s effort following a grant of 450,000 ARB from the Arbitrum Long-Term Incentive Pilot Program, with 60,000 ARB allocated specifically for this Prediction campaign. Each of the four tasks will start and conclude each week, giving you a chance to win every week.
Campaign Period:
- Week 1: 26 June 13:00 UTC to 2 July 23:59 UTC 2024
- Week 2: 3 July 00:00 UTC to 9 July 23:59 UTC 2024
- Week 3: 10 July 00:00 UTC to 16 July 23:59 UTC 2024
- Week 4: 17 July 00:00 UTC to 23 July 23:59 UTC 2024
- Week 5: 24 July 00:00 UTC to 30 July 23:59 UTC 2024
- Week 6: 31 July 00:00 UTC to 6 Aug 23:59 UTC 2024
- Week 7: 7 Aug 00:00 UTC to 13 Aug 23:59 UTC 2024
- Week 8: 14 Aug 00:00 UTC to 20 Aug 23:59 UTC 2024
- Week 9: 21 Aug 00:00 UTC to 27 Aug 23:59 UTC 2024
Eligibility: Open to all users participating in predictions on Arbitrum.
How to join the 9-week campaign with 60,000 ARB rewards
54,000 ARB Rewards to be distributed weekly!
1. Loss Protection with 27,500 ARB: Up to 100% of losses are refunded weekly based on total eligible losses.
- Your losses are protected with a 3,000 ARB weekly refund pool. Users who incur losses on their predictions during the campaign period can receive up to a 100% refund in ARB rewards to compensate for their losses. At the end of each week, we will calculate the total losses incurred by all eligible users. If the total loss incurred by all users weekly exceeds 3,000 ARB, the refund will be distributed proportionally; hence the refund amount each user can receive is determined based on the total losses of all users.
Revised Criteria Effective from Week 3 Onwards: (Updated as of 9th July 2024)
To enhance your experience and streamline our reward distribution, we've updated our loss protection criteria. Starting from Week 3 of the campaign (effective 10th July 2024), you will be eligible for a refund under "loss protection" only if your weekly net loss exceeds $5. This $5 threshold is calculated based on the opening and closing times between each week of the campaign period. We appreciate your ongoing support and are committed to improving your predictive experience.
Refund Calculation Example:
- Suppose you incurred a loss equivalent to 100 ARB in a week.
- If the total losses across all eligible users for that week amount to 4,000 ARB,
- Your compensation would be: (100 / 4000) * 3000 ARB = 75 ARB
(When you make predictions, you use ETH; to calculate your loss in ARB, we convert this using the latest ETH to ARB conversion price. At the week’s end, the closing price is applied.)
Track all your loss/win/volume etc prediction on our dune dashboard
2. Top Prediction: 1,500 ARB Weekly
The top 10 users with the highest volume predictions will share a 1,500 ARB reward pool. Users must reach a minimum accumulated volume of $1,000 weekly to qualify. The top 10 users with the highest volume will be ranked and share the 1,500 ARB reward pool:
- Rank 1: 500 ARB
- Rank 2: 300 ARB
- Rank 3: 200 ARB
- Rank 4-5: 100 ARB each
- Rank 6-10: 60 ARB each
3. Random Draw: 1,000 ARB Weekly
Each week, 10 lucky users who make at least 3 predictions will win 100 ARB each.
4. Net Winning Bonus: 500 ARB Weekly
Each week, the top 2 users with the highest net winnings will win 500 ARB. Your weekly minimum accumulated volume must be $1,000 to qualify. Rank 1 will win 300 ARB, and Rank 2 will win 200 ARB.
Check out the leaderboard here
Extra Bonus:
- At the end of the campaign, an extra 6,000 ARB bonus will be shared among users who participated for at least 6 out of the 9 weeks. All eligible users will share the 6,000 ARB equally, with a maximum individual reward of 100 ARB.
- Any leftover rewards from any of the campaigns will be distributed among all participants who make a minimum of 3 predictions at the end of the campaign.
Terms and Conditions:
- Rewards will be distributed weekly within 5 days after the end of each week.
- Only predictions made on the Arbitrum chain are eligible for rewards.
- Only predictions made during the campaign period will be eligible for rewards.
- Users must adhere to the minimum accumulated volume requirements to qualify for rewards.